Playoff Race

As teams begin approaching the 20 game mark of the season I thought I'd take a look at how likely teams are to make the playoffs, and see if some lottery teams and playoff locks are beginning to emerge. Of course last year we saw the unsustainable initial success of teams like Minnesota and Toronto catch up with them, and there was the late awakening of the Los Angeles Kings following Darryl Sutter's arrival, but if you compare these numbers to the team PDO numbers you can assess the likelihood of teams changing directions.

The table below looks at what teams records would have to be from here on out in order to reach 54 points, the assumed number necessary to make the playoffs. The normal assumption is that it will take 92 points in an 82 game season, but a simple 92/82*48 calculation gives you 53.85, the target number for this season.

Team	W	L	OTL/SOL
Anaheim	13	17	1
Boston	15	18	0
Buffalo	20	8	1
Calgary	18	12	1
Carolina	17	13	1
Chicago	9	19	1
Colorado	19	12	0
Columbus	21	8	0
Dallas	17	12	0
Detroit	16	12	1
Edmonton	18	12	0
Florida	20	10	0
Los Angeles	17	14	0
Minnesota	18	13	0
Montreal	13	15	1
Nashville	15	12	1
New Jersey	15	14	0
NY Islanders	18	10	1
NY Rangers	18	13	0
Ottawa	14	14	0
Philadelphia	17	9	1
Phoenix	17	12	1
Pittsburgh	14	15	0
San Jose	17	13	1
St. Louis	16	14	0
Tampa Bay	17	12	1
Toronto	15	13	0
Vancouver	15	15	0
Washington	20	10	1
Winnipeg	18	11	1

(this is as of end of games on February 25th)

So teams like Anaheim, Boston, Chicago, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the only teams that can potentially carry a losing record and still qualify for the playoffs. While this might not be a concern for Boston, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, it is interesting that hot starts for the Ducks and Habs may already be enough to separate themselves from the bubble teams.

Other teams like Buffalo, Colorado, Edmonton, Florida, the Islanders, Philadelphia, Washington, and Winnipeg would all require winning percentages over .600 to get them into the playoffs. Of that list you'd assume the Flyers might have the best shot, but with a poor start and one of the toughest divisions it's a safe bet on them becoming a lottery team.

None of this has much bearing on anything, but with the Leafs only needing to manage two wins over .500 certainly keeps the playoffs look attainable, as opposed to the uphill battle the team normally faces with 28 games left.